Thursday 17 February 2011

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Tuesday 15 February 2011

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Monday 14 February 2011

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Sunday 13 February 2011

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Saturday 12 February 2011

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Thursday 10 February 2011

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Tuesday 1 February 2011

February Home Buyer's Newsletter

To unsubscribe, do not hit reply. See instructions
at the end of the newsletter.

+++++++++++ February 1, 2011 +++++++++++++++++++

CONTENTS:

Introduction: Both Existing and New Home Sales Increase
Mortgage Rate Update: Rates Take a Bit of a Breather
This Month's Tip: Offers and Contracts

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Introduction: Both Existing and New Home Sales Increase

Welcome to the February edition of the Home Buyer's Newsletter.
We are beginning to see some signs of life in the Real Estate market--
not everywhere and not with significant price changes, but activity
nonetheless. The traditionally strong spring period should bring us a
much clearer indication of the trend for the year.

Existing-home sales rose sharply in December, when sales increased for
the fifth time in the past six months, according to the National
Association of REALTORS®.

Existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include
single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 12.3 percent
to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.28 million in December
from an upwardly revised 4.70 million in November, but remain 2.9
percent below the 5.44 million pace in December 2009.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said sales are on an uptrend.
"December was a good finish to 2010, when sales fluctuate more
than normal. The pattern over the past six months is clearly
showing a recovery," he said. "The December pace is near the
volume we're expecting for 2011, so the market is getting much
closer to an adequate, sustainable level. The recovery will
likely continue as job growth gains momentum and rising rents
encourage more renters into ownership while exceptional
affordability conditions remain."

The national median existing-home price2 for all housing types
was $168,800 in December, which is 1.0 percent below December
2009. Distressed homes3 rose to a 36 percent market share in
December from 33 percent in November, and 32 percent in December
2009.

"The modest rise in distressed sales, which typically are
discounted 10 to 15 percent relative to traditional homes,
dampened the median price in December, but the flat price trend
continues," Yun explained.

Total housing inventory at the end of December fell 4.2 percent
to 3.56 million existing homes available for sale, which
represents an 8.1-month supply4 at the current sales pace,
down from a 9.5-month supply in November.

On the new home side, sales of new single-family houses in December
2010 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 329,000, according
to estimates released jointly January 26th by the U.S. Census Bureau
and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 17.5 percent
(±17.7%) above the revised November rate of 280,000, but is 7.6 percent
(±17.0%) below the December 2009 estimate of 356,000.

The median sales price of new houses sold in December 2010 was $241,500;
the average sales price was $291,400. The seasonally adjusted estimate
of new houses for sale at the end of December was 190,000. This represents
a supply of 6.9 months at the current sales rate.

An estimated 321,000 new homes were sold in 2010. This is 14.2 percent
(±4.2%) below the 2009 figure of 375,000.

Probably the most important numbers in these statistics is the current supply
numbers: 8,1 months in existing homes and 6.9 months in new homes. These
inventory levels are definitely moving in the right direction--down.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Mortgage Rate Update: Rates Take a Bit of a Breather

Long-term mortgage rates took a bit of a breather in the month of January
after pretty consistent increases in the previous 45 days or so. According
to mortgage company Freddie Mac, 30-year long-term rates averaged 4.80% in
the period that ended on January after beginning the month at an average
of 4.77%. Rates decreased a bit in the middle of the month before rising
again at its conclusion. 15-year fixed-rate mortgages showed a different
trend, ending the month at an average of 4.09%, a decrease from the period
at the beginning of January where the average was 4.13%.

For current average mortgage rates, see:
<A HREF="http://www.ourfamilyplace.com/homebuyer/rates.html">Mortgage Rates</A>
For an extensive discussion of all aspects of mortgages, see the section on the
site devoted to this subject. <A HREF="http://www.ourfamilyplace.com/homebuyer/mortgage.html">Mortgages</A>

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Sponsor: Looking to Compare Agents? Try HomeGain.com

The most important part of your team for buying a home should be
your real estate Agent. Want to anonymously (and without obligation)
compare Agents? You can compare experience, background and
much more at HomeGain.com.

<A HREF="http://www.homegain.com/sp/ae_intro.html?entryid=2267&ht=houseclicksAE">Compare Agents</A>

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

This Month's Tip: Offers and Contracts

Buying a home is usually the largest purchase of a lifetime, so it is
crucial that you understand the legal workings of the transaction before you
begin to negotiate a purchase. The most basic (and important) legal
document involved in buying a home is the Contract for Sale. This
document may go b different names, for example "Agreement to Purchase"
or "Real Property Purchase Agreement" but the intent is the same: A legal
(and binding on both seller and buyer) agreement for the sale of a
specific home.

It is important to understand that the process of making an offer on a particular
property and contracting to purchase it are 2 sides of the same coin. Buyers
will occasionally have the misconception that they can "make an offer" on a
home to see what the seller would be willing to accept without making a final
committment to purchase the home. This can lead to a nasty surprise for the
buyers since their offer, if accepted by the seller usually becomes a legally
enforcable Contract for Sale. It is to the buyer's best interest, then, to be
keenly aware of any and all possible consequences BEFORE they embark
on an offer.

Some of the questions buyers should ask themselves prior to an offer:

1) Is this the right home for us? Since we may become the owner of
this particular home, are we completely happy with its location, condition,
style, etc. If it is not precisely what we are looking for in a home, can we
make modifications in the future that will make it acceptable?

2) Are our interests protected? Does the offer contain a contingency
for a whole-house inspection (and a report) that is acceptable to us?
Is there a contingency for a mortgage approval that is acceptable (and
affordable) to us? Are both we and the sellers completely clear on what
is, and is not, included in the sale. Is everyone--buyers, sellers and
Agents--completely clear on who is representing buyer and seller.

As mentioned above, since an offer becomes a contract upon acceptance
of the seller, before you make any offer, it is a good idea to familiarize
yourself with the proper components, including:

* An exact description of what you are buying, both in street
address and legal description.
* The selling price that you are offering
* Exactly what is to be included in your offer, including,
for example, refrigerators, air conditioners, etc. Do not
assume that if an item is IN the house it will be included
in the price.
* Any concessions--such as closing costs--that you want the
seller to make.
* Any contingencies to the contract. Examples would be
"subject to a whole house inspection acceptable to the
purchaser" (as well as who will pay if defects are found)
and "subject to purchaser obtaining a mortgage in the amount
of $XXXXX with an interest rate of no more than X.XX%"
* Exact date and place where the buyer's settlement
(closing) is to take place.
* Any other item or contingency that is of importance to
the purchaser and would affect the desirability of the
property.
* Clear definitions of representation by any and all Real
Estate Agents involved in the transaction.

Next Month's Tip: Keeping it Under Control

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The Home Buying Checklist

Many of our visitors have said that one of the most valuable
aspects of the Home Buyer's Information Center is the
Buying Checklist, where they can make sure that all
the bases have been touched. You can find the checklist
here: <A HREF="http://www.ourfamilyplace.com/homebuyer/checklist.html">Home Buyer's Checklist</A>

As always, if you have suggestions for improving the
site, or topics you would like to see addressed in
this newsletter (or, if you have used the Home Buyer's
Information Center to successfully purchase a home),
drop us a quick line here:
<A HREF="http://www.ourfamilyplace.com/homebuyer/feedback.html">Home Buyer's Information Center Feedback</A>

A special thanks to all those who have written to let us know
that they have found the Home Buyer's Information Center a
helpful resource in their buying process.

Have a great month and good luck in all your endeavors!

The Team at the Home Buyer's Information Center

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Dow Jones Stock Market Index Reverses at 12,000 Target, Correction Starts

The Market Oracle Newsletter
Jan 31st, 2011            Issue #3 Vol. 5

Commodities Currencies Economics Housing Market Interest Rates Education Personal Finance Stocks / Financials Real Gems

Dow Jones Stock Market Index Reverses at 12,000 Target, Correction Starts

Inflation Mega-Trend Ebook Direct Download Link (PDF 3.2m/b)

Dear Reader

The Dow achieved the long standing limit target of 12,000 early week and afforded traders / investors plenty of opportunity to bank profits on the rally to Dow 12k that began late November that can only be described as market trending higher on autopilot with very little reaction against it.

The Dow held up at around the 12k level for 4 straight days to break lower on Friday's open that the rear view mirror looking mainstream press blamed on the Egypt situation. There always is a triggering news event in hindsight, anything will do, if it was not Egypt it would have been something else!

My last in depth analysis and concluding forecast for the Dow projected a trend higher into Mid January 2011 to target Dow 12k as illustrated by the below original graph (18 Oct 2010 - Stocks Stealth Bull Market Dow Trend Forecast into Jan 2011).

Last weeks quick interim analysis (24 Jan 2011 - Dow Stock Market Index Interim Trend Analysis and Forecast Update ) concluded in :

The above analysis is concluding towards probability favouring continuation of the trend higher to the Dow 12k target by early Feb, when the market can be expected to consolidate the advance of the past 6 months and enter into a significant correction that at this point suggests a 10% decline, so tighten the stops and take the ongoing rally to bank profits which is the number one AIM of trading / investing!

A painful lesson that analysts need to learn is that too much analysis is just as bad as NO analysis, because the more analysis one does following the now distant original analysis that brought the trader into a position the greater the likelihood exists of doubt and confusion creeping into the traders thought processes, especially if analysis is done virtually every day, a recipe for disaster!

In my opinion and experience, the only way to trade and invest is to arrive at a firm conclusion on a trade / investment scenario, then let money management rules manage the position with limit and stop orders to ensure you stick with the programme and exit either AT target regardless of what the market does AFTER you have exited because that is irrelevant to you, as the only thing that matters is the price you enter and the price you exit, if your scenario starts to go wrong, then the market will throw you out of your position, and THEN you can contemplate new analysis and scenario building AFTER you have EXITED open positions.

In fact as long as a trader does NOT constantly reanalyze the market than the distance in time form the original analysis should act to reinforce the stops and limits and money management as one forgets the intricacies of original analysis over time, which is how it should be so as to ensure that once one has existed one is able to perform analyse for the next trade setup without any bias.

Instead much analysis and commentary out there is written with the benefit of hindsight, with statements such as market moves have been missed or psychological blocks that turn the perception of market trends into the opposite direction such as stating a bull market is a bear market rally which is because the perma-bear analyst is constantly reinforcing WRONG analysis of now approaching 2 years! Which if they actually forgot what they wrote before they may be able to arrive at a more probable conclusion in the present rather than being stuck in a bear market mantra time warp!

The fact is NO broker ! NONE, will every let you trade in HINDSIGHT ! Again what the market does AFTER you EXIT is IRRELEVANT!

More on the Real Secrets of Successful Trading in my forthcoming ebook anticipated completion during late March 2011 (FREE DOWNLOAD).

My next Dow stock index analysis will follow in Mid Feb, following next analysis on UK Interest rates ahead of the next Bank of England MPC Meeting (10th Feb) and quarterly Inflation Propaganda report (16th Feb).

Commodities React to Threat of Freedom in Egypt, Middle East

Freedom is Sweeping the Middle East as western backed dictatorships look set to topple over as their populations awake from over 30 years of totalitarian rule. The spark for the whole trend was the global food crisis as populations on earnings of 1/10th of those in the west are highly sensitive to even small price changes.

Egypt, the middle east's most populous nation looks set to be next after Tunisia, so far the price paid by the population in terms of deaths at under 100 looks relatively low, especially when one compares against that which has occurred in the recent past such as the 50,000+ that died in Algeria. The USA and UK as ever are walking a fine line by sending arms to the dictators to suppress their populations such as news images of columns of U.S. Abraham tanks lined up in central Cairo, to sending public broadcast messages of neutrality and Freedom that do not match what they say behind the scenes as the wikileaks embassy cables reveal.

The quest for freedom in Egypt is only just beginning as there is no sign as of writing of the Dictator Mubarak going easily as did Tunisia's dictator, so the scene is set for things get far bloodier for the Egyptians quest for freedom.

Gold and especially Crude oil leapt higher on Friday because if Egypt goes FREE, ultimately so will the Gangster dictatorships of Arabian Peninsula that account for most of the worlds crude oil exports, though it is going to be tough for those populations to pries the hands of the gangsters from the wealth of those countries.

As for the trend, whilst Gold's Friday rally cheered the gold bugs to declare that the correction was over and resumption of the bull market was at hand, my instant take is that the trend is STILL DOWN for Gold, the one day rally failed to reverse the downtrend that suggests probability ultimately favours a continuation of the trend lower to new lows for the move. I have been flat for approaching 2 months now on long standing targets being achieved, Gold $1400 and Silver at $29. I will do an in depth analysis over the coming weeks to attempt to map out a trend scenario for 2011, though probably Crude before Gold as that is an infinitely more important commodity.

Your always leaving his tax return filing to the last minute analyst.

Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article25961.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-11 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 24 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and the housing market and he is the author of the NEW Inflation Mega-Trend ebook that can be downloaded for Free. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 600 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive
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(c) 2005-2010 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - The Market Oracle asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team. Any and all information provided within this newsletter is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided in this newsletter. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. ( Market Oracle Ltd , Registered in England and Wales, Company no 6387055. Registered office: 226 Darnall Road, Sheffield S9 5AN , UK )

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